Sagg-e Zard

On Friday March 14th of 2008, another illusion of an elections is being orchestrated by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The international media will undoubtedly carry some news and images of the event, although I can assure you there will not be any serious questions asked, by the likes of CNN, BBC, Reuters, Associated Press and the rest of the circus pundits, since the answers are clear, the Islamic regime has been accepted by the world economic and political powers as a rational partner. Why would the Islamic ruling regime on purpose want to cook up its elections? Why must it so skillfully vet candidates and install its favorite proteges into official positions? Why does the Islamic government so brutally stifles the freedoms of the inhabitants of one of the most natural resource rich countries, in accordance with millennia old rotting Islamic thought? The clique running the government of Iran cannot possibly be entirely irrational! Here I will try to prove, in fact the Islamic Republic is acting rationally in entirety as a result of its economic and demographic realities.

In the world of economics, there is a concept called the "rentier effect", this idea explained, gives another reason why elections by governments as the Islamic Republic of Iran is democratically meaningless and redundant. Rentier in itself stands for: a rent receiving entity. The rentier effect finds a fundamental relationship between state run oil industries and barriers to democratization. In such countries a government relies to a large degree and sometimes almost completely on oil revenues for its budgetary needs, relying less on its citizens' taxes to run the government. One might say this can be a good thing: less pressure on people to meet the government budget with their hard earned money in form of taxes, but in such economies, democratizing elements of free trade diminish or disappear. There is less incentive for a "rentier state" to help its citizens increase efficiencies of trade through regulation or deregulation, and no urgent need to encourage an increase in personal wealth which would positively effects tax revenues. On the other hand this government has a huge incentive to increase its main source of oil income without attracting opposition from its citizens. Such governments kept unchecked, usurp the wealth of the people and would want to sell the future income from the same resources, as soon as possible. In general governments that hold absolute legal and sole property rights to the country's resources such as the government of the Islamic Republic and the likes such as Libya, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and etc. do not need their people except for defense or the day to day operations of the government, such as stifling dissent and preservation of status quo. Such countries might as well be empty spans of unpopulated deserts, decorated with pumps and pipelines which deliver crude oil to savvy foreign clients, as efficiently as possible. What is interesting is that the oil revenues collected by the government is calculated as part of the per capita GNP income by international organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank, while that money is being used mainly on the security apparatus to keep the same individual in check. In reality a "rentier state" acts very similar to a colonial occupier with every reason to weaken or eliminate its existential threats.

On the day after the Islamic Majles (Parliament) elections of March 14th, we may see a different make up of candidates win, perhaps more reformists, or we may be presented surrealistically but entirely possibly, with the exact same candidates as the previous term. The bottom line is that the policies of the Islamic regime ruling Iran, will be evolving along the lines of assuring the survival of the establishment that has been in place for almost thirty years, serving the same economic interests. This, I say is rational, they are not totally crazy.

Listed below are links related to the "rentier effect", some with very interesting Iran related comparative data. You judge for yourself whether we need fundamental and radical change in Iran. There is hope for the future but it depends on what we do today, so take action, and start by boycotting the Islamic Republic, and expose their evil existence for all to see.

1- OIL AND THE RENTIER STATE: IRAN'S CAPITAL FORMATION, 1960-1997
http://www.luc.edu/orgs/meea/volume4/oilrentier/oilrentier.pdf
2- Does Oil Hinder Democracy?
http://muse.jhu.edu/login?uri=/journals/world_politics/v053/53.3ross.html
3- Rentier state
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rentier_state
4- Dutch disease
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease
5- Resource curse
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse
6- Short from a blog
http://onegoodmove.org/1gm/1gmarchive/2003/02/oil_and_democra.html
7- Oil and Democracy
http://oildemocracy.blogspot.com/

Labels: Democracy, Economy, Election, IRAN, Islam, oil, rentier, rentier effect